Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 0.328063 0.371233 0.418064 0.472662 0.534596 0.602704 0.683334
2025-10-19 0.266494 0.324122 0.391348 0.475646 0.578667 0.700653 0.856343
2025-10-26 0.224960 0.291898 0.375251 0.486874 0.632801 0.817588 1.070170
2025-11-02 0.181994 0.250516 0.341083 0.469909 0.649101 0.890510 1.242128
2025-11-09 0.146665 0.213158 0.306006 0.445650 0.651381 0.944965 1.398681
2025-11-16 0.123209 0.188358 0.284106 0.435817 0.671697 1.027012 1.607682
2025-11-23 0.104154 0.166882 0.263566 0.424389 0.687352 1.104045 1.821740
2025-11-30 0.093128 0.155991 0.257346 0.433901 0.736753 1.240406 2.152559
2025-12-07 0.079361 0.138477 0.237831 0.418438 0.742294 1.305568 2.374515
2025-12-14 0.069363 0.125799 0.224446 0.411167 0.760398 1.394285 2.652129
2025-12-21 0.060983 0.114700 0.212137 0.403756 0.776744 1.481726 2.941314
2025-12-28 0.056477 0.110027 0.210706 0.416175 0.831934 1.649335 3.413231
2026-01-04 0.050648 0.102195 0.202633 0.415353 0.862833 1.778087 3.837176
2026-01-11 0.046114 0.096267 0.197443 0.419600 0.904975 1.936832 4.354932
2026-01-18 0.042774 0.092298 0.195639 0.430681 0.963566 2.140065 5.009719
2026-01-25 0.037649 0.083777 0.183106 0.416561 0.964457 2.217632 5.391197
2026-02-01 0.032696 0.074913 0.168575 0.395694 0.946572 2.249821 5.670850
2026-02-08 0.029310 0.069107 0.160031 0.387393 0.957068 2.350455 6.140371
2026-02-15 0.026244 0.063605 0.151404 0.377549 0.962197 2.438967 6.596144
2026-02-22 0.024654 0.061424 0.150316 0.386195 1.015535 2.657619 7.443525
2026-03-01 0.021991 0.056200 0.141087 0.372617 1.008629 2.718742 7.866162
2026-03-08 0.020008 0.052428 0.134965 0.366264 1.020175 2.831367 8.459672
2026-03-15 0.018236 0.048952 0.129120 0.359754 1.030242 2.941691 9.068876